Rational Feed

EA:

Not Everybody wants a Goat by GiveDirectly – Eight links on GiveDirectly, Cash Transfers, Effective Altruism and Basic Income.

AI:

Examples Of Superintelligence Risk by Jeff Kaufman – A series of extended quotes describing ways AI with innocent seeming goals can destroy the world. Authors: Nick Bostrom, Eliezer (and collaborators), Luke M, 80K hours, Tim Urban. Jeff finds them unpersuasive and asks for better ones. Lots of interesting comments. Eleizer himself comments describing how ‘paperclip maximizers’ might realistically occur.

Politics and Economics:

Should We Build Lots More Housing In San Francisco: Three Reasons People Disagree by Julia Galef – For each of the three reasons Julia describes multiple sub-reasons. More housing might not lower prices much. More housing won’t help the poor. NIMBY objections might be legitimate.

Misc:

Unexpected by protokol2020 – Discussion of gaps between primes. “Say, that you have just sailed across some recordly wide composite lake and you are on a prime island again. What can you expect, how much wider will the next record lake be?”

Podcast:

Inside The World Of Supertraining: Mark Bell by Tim Feriss – “Mark’s most important lessons for building strength. How to avoid injury and breakdown. Lesser-known training techniques that nearly everyone overlooks. How Mark became a millionaire by offering his gym memberships for free.”

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

Boost From The Best by Robin Hanson – [Age of Em] How many standard deviations above the mean will be the best em be? How much better will they be than the second best em? How much of a wage/leisure premium will the best em receive.

EA:

Mid Year Update by The GiveWell Blog – Encouraging more charities to apply. More research of potential interventions. Short operations recap. GiveWell is focusing more on outreach.

Politics and Economics:

Thoughts On Doxxing by Ozy (Thing of Things) – CNN found the identity of the guy who made the video of Trump beating up CNN. They implied they would dox him if he continued being racist. Is doxxing him ok? What about doxxing someone who runs r/jailbait? Ozy discusses the practical effect of doxxing and unleashing hate mobs.

Kenneth Arrow On The Welfare Economics Of Medical Care A Critical Assessment by Artir (Nintil) – “Kenneth Arrow wrote a paper in 1963, Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care. This paper tends to appear in debates regarding whether healthcare can be left to the market (like bread), or if it should feature heavy state involvement. Here I explain what the paper says, and to what extent it is true.”

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

In Praise Of Fake Frameworks by Valentine (lesswrong) – “I use a lot of fake frameworks — that is, ways of seeing the world that are probably or obviously wrong in some important way. I think this is an important skill. There are obvious pitfalls, but I think the advantages are more than worth it. In fact, I think the “pitfalls” can even sometimes be epistemically useful.”

Becoming Stronger Together by b4yes (lesswrong) – “About a year ago, a secret rationalist group was founded. This is a report of what the group did during that year.”

Politics and Economics:

Radical Book Club The Decentralized Left by davidzhines (Status 451) – The nature of leftwing organizing and what righties can learn from it. An exposition of multiple books on radical left organization building. Major themes are “doing the work” and “decentralized leadership”.

On The Seattle Minimum Wage Study Part 2 by Zvi Moshowitz – Several relevant links are included. Seattle’s economic boom and worker composition changes are important factors. Zvi dives deep into the numbers and tries to resolve an apparent contradiction.

Misc:

Interacting With A Long Running Child Process In Python by Eli Bendersky – Using the subprocess module to run an http server. Solutions and analysis of common use cases. Lots of code.

Podcast:

Eddie Izzard by The Ezra Klein Show – 27 marathons in 27 days, process for writing jokes, why he wants to run for parliament, inspiration from Al Franken’s, borrowing confidence from his future self. What he learned as a street performer, routines are based on history and anthropology, World War I, ‘cake or death?’. His gender identity, and how he integrated it into his act early on, etc.

Rational Feed

Scott:

<a href=”http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/07/10/change-minds-or-drive-turnout/”>Change Minds Or Drive Turnout by Scott Alexander</a> – Extreme candidates lower turnout among their own party. Is base turnout really the only thing that matters? Lots of quotes from studies.

Rationalist:

<a href=”http://sailorvulcansstarship.blogspot.com/2017/07/letter-to-future-layperson.html”>Letter To Future Layperson by Sailor Vulcan (BYS)</a> – A letter from someone in our age to someone post singularity. Description of the hardships and terrors of pre-singularity life. Emotional and poetic. ~5K words.

AI:

<a href=”https://www.jefftk.com/p/conversation-with-michael-littman”>Conversation With Michael Littman by Jeff Kaufman</a> – CS Professor at Brown’s opinions: Deep Learning is surprisingly brittle in his experience. General Intelligence will require large fundamental advances. The AI risk community isn’t testing their ideas so they probably aren’t making real progress.

<a href=”https://www.jefftk.com/p/superintelligence-risk-project-update”>Superintelligence Risk Project Update by Jeff Kaufman</a> – Links to the three most informative readings on AI risk. Details on the large number of people Jeff has talked to. Three fundamental points of view on AI-Safety. Three Fundamental points of disagreement. An update on the original questions Jeff was trying to answer.

Politics and Economics:

<a href=”https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/07/09/on-the-seattle-minimum-wage-study-part-1/”>On The Seattle Minimum Wage Study Part 1 by Zvi Moshowitz</a> – The claimed effect sizes are huge. Zvi’s priors about the minimum wage. Detailed description of some of the paper’s methods and how it handle potential issues. Discussion of the raw data. More to come in part 2.

Misc:

<a href=”http://somesmalltruths.blogspot.com/2017/07/the-destruction-of-american-cuisine.html”>The Destruction Of American Cuisine by Small Truths</a> – America used to have a tremendous number of regional cuisines, most are dead. They were killed by supermarkets and frozen food. This has been costly both in terms of culture and health (antibiotic resistance, crop monoculture risk)

<a href=”https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/2017/07/10/4d-mate-problem/”>4d Mate Problem by protokol2020</a> – How many queens do you need to get a checkmate in 4D chess.

Podcast:

<a href=”http://www.rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/rs-188-robert-kurzban-on-being-strategically-wrong.html”>Rs 188 Robert Kurzban On Being Strategically Wrong by Rationally Speaking</a> – Why Everyone (Else) is a Hypocrite.” The “modular mind” hypothesis, and how it explains hypocrisy, self-deception, and other seemingly irrational features of human nature.

<a href=”http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/07/martha_nussbaum_1.html”>Martha Nussbaum by EconTalk</a> – “The tension between acquiring power and living a life of virtue. Topics discussed include Hamilton’s relationship with Aaron Burr, Burr’s complicated historical legacy, and the role of the humanities in our lives.”

 

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

<a href=”https://mindlevelup.wordpress.com/2017/07/09/rethinking-reality-and-rationality/”>Rethinking Reality And Rationality by mindlevelup</a> – Productivity is almost a solved problem. Much current rationalist research is very esoteric. Finally grokking effective altruism. Getting people good enough at rationality that they are self correcting. Pedagogy and making research fields legible.

Podcast:

<a href=”http://tim.blog/2017/07/09/kyle-maynard-without-limits/”>Kyle Maynard Without Limits by Tim Ferriss</a> – “Kyle Maynard is a motivational speaker, bestselling author, entrepreneur, and ESPY award-winning mixed martial arts athlete, known for becoming the first quadruple amputee to reach the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro and Mount Aconcagua without the aid of prosthetics.”

 

Rational Feed

Scott:

Two Kinds Of Caution by Scott Alexander – Sometimes boring technologies (ex container ships) wind up being far more important than flashy tech. However Scott argues that often the flashy tech really is important. There is too much contrarianism and not enough meta-contrarianism. AI risk.

AI:

Conversation With Dario Amodei by Jeff Kaufman – “The research that’s most valuable from an AI safety perspective also has substantial value from the perspective of solving problems today”. Prioritize work on goals. Transparency and adversarial examples are also important.

Updates To The Research Team And A Major Donation by The MIRI Blog – MIRIr received a 1 million dollar donation. Two new full-time researchers. Two researchers leaving. Medium term financial plans.

EA:

Ea Marketing And A Plea For Moral Inclusivity by MichaelPlant (EA forum) – EA markets itself as being about poverty reduction. Many EAs think other topics are more important (far future, AI, animal welfare, etc). The author suggests becoming both more inclusive and more openly honest.

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

Against Lone Wolf Selfimprovement by cousin_it (lesswrong) – Lone wolf improvement is hard. Too many rationalists attempt it for cultural and historical reasons. Its often better to take a class or find a group.

Epistemic Laws Of Motion by SquirrelInHell – Newton’s three laws re-interpreted in terms of psychology and people’s strategies. A worked example using ‘physics’ to determine if someone will change their mind. Short and clever.

The Abyss Of Want by AellaGirl – The infinite regress of ‘Asking why’. Taking acid and ego death. You can’t imagine the experience of death. Coming back to life. Wanting to want things. Humility and fake enlightenment.

Irrationalityisintheeyeofthebeholder by João Eira (Lettuce be Cereal) – Is eating a chocolate croissant on a diet always irrational? Context, hidden motivations and the curse of knowledge.

The Power Of Pettiness by Sarah Perry (ribbonfarm) – “These emotions – pettiness and shame – are the engines driving epistemic progress” Four virtues: Loneliness, ignorance, pettiness and overconfidence.

EA:

How Can We Best Coordinate As A Community by Benn Todd (EA forum) – ‘Replaceability’ is a bad reason not to do direct work, lots of positions are very hard to fill. Comparative Advantage and division of labor. Concrete ways to boost productivity: 5 minute favours, Operations roles, Community infrastructure, Sharing knowledge and Specialization. EA Global Video is included.

My Current Thoughts On Miris Highly Reliable by Daniel Dewey (EA forum) – Report by the Open Phil AI safety lead. A basic description of and case for the MIRI program. Conclusion: 10% credence in MIRI’s work being highly useful. Reasons: Hard to apply to early agents, few researchers are excited, other approaches seem more promising.

Politics and Economics:

Scraps 3 Hoffer And Performance Art by Lou (sam[]zdat) – Growing out of radicalism. Either economic and family instability can cause mass movements. why the left has adopted Freud. The Left’s economic platform is popular, its cultural platform is not. Performance art: Marina Abramović’s’ ‘Rhythm 0’. Recognizing and denying your own power.

Misc:

Erisology Of Self And Will Representative Campbell Speaks by Everything Studies – An exposition of the “mainstream” view of the self and free will.

Podcast:

85 Is This The End Of Europe by Waking Up with Sam Harris – Douglas Murray and his book ‘The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam’.