Book Review Inadequate Equilibria by Scott Alexander – “But most of all, it’s a book of theodicy. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil?”
Link Post For November by Ozy – Ozy Link Post (now with categories): Ozy elsewhere, Government, Social Justice, Effective Altruism, Misc.
Cash Transfers Are Not Necessarily Wealth Transfers by Ben Hoffman – “I’m going to try to communicate an underlying model that generates the appropriate kind of skepticism about interventions like cash transfers, in a way that’s intuitive and not narrowly technical. I’ll begin with a parable, and then talk about how it relates to real-world cases.”
Update Investigating Neglected Goals Biological Research by Open Philanthropy – “Our initial plan. Our hopes and expectations. Our process applied to biology. Results vs. hopes and expectations. Our new plan.”
Why Bitcoin Is So Volatile by Grey Enlightenment – “In order to sell Bitcoins in bulk, one must transfer them to exchange, but this incurs a major risk for the seller, namely that the exchange may be hacked and the bitcoins lost forever. Also there isn’t much liquidity on the exchanges, and in fact much less liquidity than meets the eye, which I will explain shortly.”
– “But most of all, it’s a book of theodicy. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil?”
– Ozy Link Post (now with categories): Ozy elsewhere, Government, Social Justice, Effective Altruism, Misc.
– “I’m going to try to communicate an underlying model that generates the appropriate kind of skepticism about interventions like cash transfers, in a way that’s intuitive and not narrowly technical. I’ll begin with a parable, and then talk about how it relates to real-world cases.”
– “Our initial plan. Our hopes and expectations. Our process applied to biology. Results vs. hopes and expectations. Our new plan.”
– “In order to sell Bitcoins in bulk, one must transfer them to exchange, but this incurs a major risk for the seller, namely that the exchange may be hacked and the bitcoins lost forever. Also there isn’t much liquidity on the exchanges, and in fact much less liquidity than meets the eye, which I will explain shortly.”
The Right To Be Wrong by Sarah Constantin – The Right To Your Opinion. Discovery Requires Risking Mistakes. Space Mom Accepts All Her Children.
For People Who Are Too Honest Or Why by Sailor Vulcan – ‘When people say that there’s such a thing as being too honest, I don’t think they’re talking about honesty per se,’ I told him. ‘More likely, they’re actually saying that there’s such a thing as being too open and familiar with people too quickly.'”
Politics and Economics:
The Media Narrative Wrong by Grey Enlightenment – “Trump cannot win. Trump will doom stock market & economy. Trump cutting off trade deals will hurt economy. Trump will hurt foreign relations. The bull market hinges on Trump passing tax cuts, and if he fails the market will crash. The economy will fail/market will crash/debt too high/inflation/etc. Housing prices in Bay Area are a bubble. Bitcoin will crash.”
106 Humanity 20 by Waking Up with Sam Harris – “Sam Harris speaks with Jennifer Doudna about the gene-editing technology CRISPR/cas9. They talk about the biology of gene editing, how specific tissues in the body can be targeted, the ethical implications of changing the human genome, the importance of curiosity-driven science, and other topics.”
Conversation Douglas Irwin Podcast by Marginal Revolution – “trade, trade history, and trade policy. We covered how much of 19th century American growth was due to tariffs, trade policy toward China, the cultural argument against free trade, whether there is a national security argument for agricultural protectionism, TPP, how new trade agreements should be structured, the trade bureaucracy in D.C., whether free trade still brings peace, Smoot-Hawley, the American Revolution (we are spoiled brats), Dunkirk, why New Hampshire is so wealthy, Brexit, Alexander Hamilton, NAFTA, the global trade slowdown, premature deindustrialization, and the history of the Chicago School of Economics”
A Completely Accurate Map With No Distortion At All by Scott Alexander – A puzzle.
Politics and Economics:
Free Speech As Legal Right Versus Ethical Value by Ozy – “It is very annoying that the English language does not distinguish between free speech the ethical value and free speech the legal right. I feel like many conversations would be far clearer and more sensible if different words were used for these two things.”
The Leaning Tower Of Morality by Kevin Simler (ribbonfarm) – “Ground floor: Perfect zero-sum selfishness. Aggression and exploitation. The war of all against all. Middle floors: Various flavors of mutualism. “I’ll help you if you help me.” Reciprocity. Tit for tat. Higher floors: Empathy and compassion. Turning the other cheek. True virtue (not just signaling). A tendency to cooperate in one-shot prisoner’s dilemmas. Penthouse: Perfect self-sacrificing altruism. A willingness to give time, energy, money, or even one’s life to help a stranger for nothing in return.”
Security Mindset And Ordinary Paranoia by Eliezer (LW 2.0) – “Amber, a philanthropist interested in a more reliable Internet, and Coral, a computer security professional, are at a conference hotel together discussing what Coral insists is a difficult and important issue: the difficulty of building “secure” software.”
Security Mindset And The Logistic Success Curve by Eliezer (LW 2.0) – Amber and Carol discuss the security problems of a merchant drone startup.
Preferences Awareness by Robin Hanson – “But when explaining behavior, postulated preferences and conscious intent are just separate and independent topics on which one can be clear. There is not obvious or necessary relation between them.”
Why Buddhism is True by The Ezra Klein Show – ” It’s a deep dive into theories of the mind, informed both by Wright’s scientific background and his study and practice of Buddhism. It’s about how our minds evolved to keep us alive, not to keep us happy or satisfied — and what can be done about it.”
Regulation by EconTalk – “The role regulation plays in economic development and the challenges of measuring regulatory barriers to new business creation.”
Why Be Contrarian by Robin Hanson – “Eliezer Yudkowsky’s new book Inadequate Equilibria is really two disconnected books, one (larger) book that does an excellent job of explaining how individuals acting directly can often improve on the best advice of experts embedded in broken institutions, and another (smaller) book that largely fails to explain why one can realistically hope to consistently pick the correct side among disputing experts.”
Be Thankful For Not Smoking by Grey Enlightenment – “The risk between cigarettes smoked/day and lung cancer, somewhat counterintuitively, has a logarithmic relationship. This means that those who think they are meaningfully reducing their risk by ‘only’ smoking a pack a day instead of two, are doing themselves no favors. It makes scant difference whether you smoke 10 cigarettes a day or three packs a day. Making matters worse, although quitting reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke, accumulated lung cancer risk is irreversible.”
Inadequate Equilibria by Bayesian Investor – “Another way to summarize the book would be: don’t aim to overcompensate for overconfidence; instead, aim to eliminate the causes of overconfidence.”
Deliberate Performance In People Management by (EA forum) – Deliberate Practice and Performance. Action Learning Activites. Extrapolation, Exploration and Estimation. Examples.
The Darwin Results by Zvi Moshowitz – A betrayal among the cliquebots. Final Fate.
What Should Counterfactual Donation Mean by Jeff Kaufman – If you offer to counter-factually donate 50$ conditional on someone’s behavior what are you allowed to do with the money if they don’t live up to their end of the bargain.
Western Elite Chinese Perspective by Puzhong Yao – An incredible quote. “When I was an intern, in one of the training presentations, a senior banker told us to distinguish between the process and the results. He said that we should focus on the process, which we can control, rather than the result, which is subject to luck. And here at Goldman, he said, we don’t punish people for losing money for the right reason. I have always loved asking questions, so I asked him, was anyone ever punished for making money for the wrong reason? After giving it some thought, he said that he had not heard of any such thing.”