2018 Predictions Calibration Results by Scott Alexander – Scott scores his 2018 predictions: ‘Everything goes well until the 95% level, where I get a very poorly calibrated 75%. This is partly the fault of not having very many 95% predictions this year, but even so I should have done better than this.’
Distant Future Tradeoffs by Robin Hanson – Robin discuses the result of three twitter polls he ran about which tradeoff we will face in the future relative to today in the domains of software, physical devices and social institutions.
The Relationship Between Hierarchy And Wealth by Sarah Constantin – Will egalitarian or hierarchical norms dominant in the future? The historical evidence is mixed.
Politics and Economics:
Quality Contributions Catch Up Thread by r/SSC – Eight weeks worth of CW quality contributions. This catches us up to mid december. The SSC mods hope we will be caught up soon and the weekly CW roundup will return.
A Meta Meditation by Everything Studies – A meditation on Quillette, Eternal September and building intellectual skyscrappers.