Fallacies Of Reversed Moderation by Scott Alexander – If you try to shift the balance from 100$ A 0% B to 90% A 10% B people will frame you as an extremist who only cares about B.
The Romeo And Juliet Fallacy by Everything Studies – Commentary on Scott’s ‘fallacy of reversed moderation’. In particular it talks about multi-causal trends and messy models.
Lazy Poly by Ozy – Ozy explains why someone would be poly if they don’t have much time for their secondary partners.
18 Month Follow Up On My Self Concept Work by Kaj Sotala – ‘About eighteen months ago, I found Steve Andreas’s book Transforming Your Self, and applied its techniques to fixing a number of issues in my self-concepts which had contributed to my depression and anxiety. Six weeks after those changes, I posted a report called “How I found & fixed the root problem behind my depression and anxiety after 20+ years”. I figured that by now it would be time for a follow-up on how those effects have lasted.’
Dealing With Setbacks by 80,000 Hours – ‘I’ve made a checklist of questions I try to work through when something unpleasant happens, in order to reframe the situation and get over it as quickly as possible. The basic idea is similar to cognitive behavioral therapy.’
2018 AI Alignment Literature Review And Charity Comparison by Larks – Very detailed reviews of the alphabet soup of AI risk agencies. If you don’t understand the soup abbreviations and are not interested in an introduction I would skip this article. TLDR: MIRI is not recommended because they don’t disclose their research. FHI and GPI are very expensive to fund. the author is donating to CHAI. CSER and GCRI are comparable but GCRI is smaller and therefore a better funding target. ANU, Deepmind and OpenAI are great but too expensive for retail donors to fund. AI impacts will receive funding if they scale next year. the author plans to fund some individual donors.
Politics and Economics:
NBER roundup by TrannyPornO – The weekly National Bureau of Economic Research roundup returns.
How Effective Altruists Can Be Welcoming To Conservatives by Ozy – The majority of effective altruists are liberal. This makes it easy to casually alienate conservatives. Ozy goes over some ways to avoid accidentally avoid making conservatives uncomfortable.