2017 Predictions Calibration Results by Scott Alexander – Scott scores his predictions from last year. Overall reasonably well calibrated but Scott was too optomistic about his personal life.
Ssc Survey Results 2018 by Scott Alexander – Scott released the survey results and data. Unlike previous years he did not do any analysis yet.
Insights From The Strategy Of Conflict by DanielFilan (LW 2.0) – Schelling points in Bargaining, Threats, Promises and why its hard to get a reputation for carrying out threats, Mutally Assured Destruction vs Gunslinger dynamic.
Papers For 2017 by Kaj Sotala – Three Papers and published by Kaj along with their abstracts: How Feasible is the Rapid Development of Artificial Superintelligence?, Disjunctive Scenarios of Catastrophic AI Risk, Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering.