Fire Alarm by Eliezer Yudkowksy – At no point before AGI is created is it going to be socially acceptable to seriously worry about AGI. The actual standard for when AI researchers will agree there is a problem is when they personally can see how to build AGI. Lots of things have become much easier in AI but researchers always experience the difficulty of being on the cutting edge. AI researchers cannot even model what can be accomplished in two years, never-mind ten.
Markets That Explain Via Markets To Pick A Best by Robin Hanson – Can you use prediction markets to explain their predictions. General Method: “How to cheaply get a single good thing, if you have access to many people willing to submit and evaluate distinguishable things, and you have access to at least one possibly expensive judge who can rank these things”
Beginners Meditation by Zvi Moshowitz – Zvi goes to a beginners meditation class mostly filled with old ladies.
The Fish Head Monk by Zvi Moshowitz – A poor Sufi lives on fish head soup. His teacher lives in opulence. The teacher tells the Sufi to be less worldly.
You Can Never Be Universally Inclusive by Kaj Sotala – Any set of norms will exclude some people. Being inclusive in the usual sense tends to mean adopting norms that attract more people then they repel. Competing access needs. Don’t try to be inclusive in general, figure out what to be inclusive towards.
Rare Exception Or Common Exception by weft (LW 2.0) – “Pointing out that rare exceptions exist is usually a negative derailing tactic. However if you think your conversational partner is annoyingly pointing out a rare exception, double-check in case they think they are pointing out a common exception.”
Idea Inoculation Inferential Distance by Conor Moreton (LW 2.0) – The combination of idea inoculation and inferential distance quickly destroys communication. If you find yourself in a high inferential distance conversation tread very lightly.
Politics and Economics:
Yet Another Half Baked Theory Of The Political Spectrum by Artir – Theories of left/right: Thrive/Survey, Caplan’s model that leftists are anti-market and rightists are anti-left. The data Scott wants to explain. Are Scott’s clusters actually natural. What unites leftists is utilitarianism, what defines the right. A three axis model. What factors predict each axis.
The Guardians Inferno by samzdat – Social Media, The like button, Tech companies, Trump and Bexit, Tristan Harris. Attention is money. Advertising. Addiction. Real radicals vs the guardian. Identity won’t change anything.