Rational Feed

EA:

Paypal Giving Fund by Jeff Kaufman – The PayPal giving fund lets you batch donations and PayPal covers the fees if you use it. Jeff thought there must be a catch but it seems legit.

Reasonable Doubt New Look Whether Prison Growth Cuts Crime by Open Philosophy – Part1 of a four part, in depth, series on Criminal Justice reform. The remaining posts are linked below. “I estimate, that at typical policy margins in the United States today, decarceration has zero net impact on crime. That estimate is uncertain, but at least as much evidence suggests that decarceration reduces crime as increases it. The crux of the matter is that tougher sentences hardly deter crime, and that while imprisoning people temporarily stops them from committing crime outside prison walls, it also tends to increase their criminality after release. As a result, “tough-on-crime” initiatives can reduce crime in the short run but cause offsetting harm in the long run. Empirical social science research—or at least non-experimental social science research—should not be taken at face value. Among three dozen studies I reviewed, I obtained or reconstructed the data and code for eight. Replication and reanalysis revealed significant methodological concerns in seven and led to major reinterpretations of four. These studies endured much tougher scrutiny from me than they did from peer reviewers in order to make it into academic journals. Yet given the stakes in lives and dollars, the added scrutiny was worth it. So from the point of view of decision makers who rely on academic research, today’s peer review processes fall well short of the optimal.”

Deterrence De Minimus by Open Philosophy – Part 2.

Incapacitation How Much Does Putting People Inside Prison Cut Crime Outside by Open Philosophy – Part 3.

Aftereffects Us Evidence Says Doing More Time Typically Leads More Crime After by Open Philosophy – Part 4.

Politics and Economics:

Raj Chetty Course Using Big Data Solve Economic Social Problems by Marginal Revolution – Link to an eleven lecture course. “Equality of opportunity, education, health, the environment, and criminal justice. In the context of these topics, the course provides an introduction to basic statistical methods and data analysis techniques, including regression analysis, causal inference, quasi-experimental methods, and machine learning.”

Misc:

Coin Flipping Problem by protokol2020 – Flipping coins until you get a pre-committed sequence. You re-start whenever your flip doesn’t match the sequence. Relationship between the expected number of flips and the length of the sequence.

Podcast:

Reihan Salam by The Ezra Klein Show – Remaking the Republican party, but not the way Donald Trump did it. “The future of the Republican Party, the healthcare debate, and how he would reform our immigration system (and upend the whole way we talk about it). ”

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Author: deluks917

Software Engineer in New York City. Admin of the SlateStarcodex discord. Math PHD drop out.

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