Why Are Transgender People Immune To Optical Illusions by Scott Alexander – Scott’s community survey showed, with a huge effect size, that transgender individuals are less susceptible to the spinning mask and dancer illusions. Trans suffer from dis-associative disorder at a high rate. Connections between the two phenomena and NDMA. Commentary on the study methodology.
Open Thread 78.75 by Scott Alexander – Bi-weekly public open thread.
Strategic Implications Of Ai Scenarios by Tobias Baumann (EA forum) – Questions and topics: Advanced AI timelines. Hard or soft takeoff? Goal alignment? Will advanced AI act as a single entity or a distributed system? Implication for estimating the EV of donating to AI-safety.
How Long Does It Take To Research And Develop A by Peter Hurford (EA forum) – How long it takes to make a vaccine. Literature review. Historical data on how long a large number of vaccines took to develop. Conclusions.
Politics and Economics:
Beware The Moral Spotlight by Robin Hanson – The stated goals of government/business don’t much matter compared to the selective pressures on their leadership, don’t obsess over which sex has the worse deal overall, don’t overate the benefits of democracy and ignore higher impact changes to government.
Blake Mycoskie by Tim Ferriss – Early entrepreneurial ventures. The power of journaling. How “the stool analogy” changed Blake’s life. Lessons from Ben Franklin.