A Tangled Task Future by Robin Hanson – We need to untangle the economy to automate it. What tasks are heavily tangled and which are not. Ems and the human brain as a legacy system. Human brains are well-integrated and good at tangled tasks.
S-risks: Why They Are The Worst Existential Risks by Kaj Sojata (lesswrong) – “S-risk – One where an adverse outcome would bring about severe suffering on a cosmic scale, vastly exceeding all suffering that has existed on Earth so far.” Why we should focus on S-risk. Probability: Artificial sentience, Lack of communication, badly aligned Ai and competitive pressures. Tractability: Relationship with x-risk. Going meta, cooperation. Neglectedness: little attention, people conflate x-risk = s-risk.
Angst Ennui And Guilt In Effective Altruism by Gordon (Map and Territory) – Learning about existential risk can cause psychological harm. Guilt about being unable to help solve X-risk. Akrasia. Reasons to not be guilty: comparative advantage, ability is unequally distributed.
A New President of GWWC by Giving What We Can – Julia Wise is the New president of Giving What We Can.
Politics and Economics:
The Use And Abuse Of Witchdoctors For Life by Lou (samzdat) – Anti-bullet magic and collective self-defense. Cultural evolution. People don’t directly believe in anti-bullet magic, they believe in elders and witch doctors. Seeing like a State. Individual psychology is the foundation. Many psychologically important customs couldn’t adapt to the marketplace.
Identifying Sources Of Cost Disease by Kurt Spindler – Where is the money going: Administration, Increased Utilization, Decreased Risk Tolerance. What market failures are in effect: Unbounded Domains, Signaling and Competitive Pressure (ex: military spending), R&D doesn’t cut costs it creates new ways to spend money, individuals don’t pay. Some practical strategies to reduce cost disease.
Sequential Conversion Rates by Chris Stucchio – Estimating success rates when you have noisy reporting. The article is a sketch of how the author handled such a problem in practice.