Bayes: A Kinda Sorta Masterpost by Nostalgebraist – A long and very well thought-out criticism of Bayesianism. Explanation of Bayesian methodology. Comparison with classical statistics. Arguments for Bayes. The problem of ignored hypotheses with known relations. The problem of new ideas. Where do priors come from? Regularization and insights from machine learning.
Tasting Godhood by Agenty Duck – Poetic and personal. Wine tasting. Empathizing with other people. Seeing others as whole people. How to dream about other people. Sci-fi futures. Tasting godhood is the same as tasting other people. Looking for your own godhood.
Epistemology Vs Critical Thinking by Onemorenickname (lesswrong) – Epistemies work. General approaches don’t work. Scientific approaches work. Epistemic effort vs Epistemic status. Criticisms of lesswrong Bayesianism.
The Precept Of Niceness by H i v e w i r e d – Prisoner’s Dilemma’s. Even against a truly alien opponent you should still cooperate as long as possible on the iterated prisoner’s dilemma, even with fixed round lengths, play tit-for-tat. Niceness is the best strategy.
Politics and Economics:
Summing Up My Thoughts On Macroeconomics by Noah Smith – Slides from Noah’s talk at the Norwegian Finance Ministry. Comparison of Industry, Central Bank and Academic Macroeconomics. Overview of important critiques of academic macro. The DGSE standard mode and ways to improve it. What makes a good Macro theory. Go back to the microfoundations.
81 Leaving Islam by Waking Up with Sam Harris – “Sarah Haider. Her organization Ex-Muslims of North America, how the political Left is confused about Islam, “rape culture” under Islam, honesty without bigotry, stealth theocracy, immigration, the prospects of reforming Islam”