A Theory of Hypocrisy by João Eira (Lettuce be Cereal) – Hypocrisy evolved as a way to solve free rider problems. “It pays to be a free rider. If no one finds out”
Four Quantitative Modes, Aggregation and Final Decision by the Oxford Prioritization Project. – 80K hours, MIRI, Good Foods Institute and StrongMinds were considered. Decisions were made using concrete Bayesian EV calculations. Links to the four models are included.
Expected Value Estimates We Cautiously Took Literally by the Oxford Prioritization Project. – Details of how the four bayesian probability models were compared to produce a final decision. Some discussion of how assumptions affect the final result. Actual code is included.
Online Google Hangout on Approaches to AGI Risk – Community meeting to discuss Ai risk. Will use “Optimal Brainstorming Theory”. Currently early stage. Sign up and vote on what times you are available.
Politics and Econ:
The Nimby Challenge by Noah Smith – Smith Argues makes an economic counterargument to the claims that building more housing wouldn’t lower prices. Noah includes 6 lessons for engaging with NIMBYs.