Postmarketing Surveillance is Good and Normal by Scott Alexander – Scott shows why a recent Scientific American study does not imply the FDA is too risky.
Recovering from Failure by MindLevelUp – Avoid negative spirals, figure out why you failed, List of questions to ask yourself. Strategies -> Generate good alternatives, metacognitive affordances.
Three Human Problems and One Ai Issue by Stuart Armstrong (lesswrong) – Humans have poor predictions, don’t know their values and aren’t agents. Ai might be very powerful. A graph of which problems many Ai risk solutions target.
Politics and Economics:
Campbell’s Law and the Inevitability of School Fraud by Freddie Deboer – Rampant Grade Inflation. Lowered standards. Campbell’s law says that once you base policy on a metric that metric will always start being gamed
Me on Anarcho Capitalism by Bryan Caplan – – Bryan is interviewed on the Rubin Report about Ancap.
Impact Housing Price Restrictions by Tyler Cowen – Link to a job market paper on the economic effects of housing regulation.
Vast Empirical Literature by Tyler Cowen – Tyler’s 10 thoughts on approaching fields with large literatures. He is critical of Noah’s “two paper rule” and recommends alot of reading.
Study of the week: What actually Helps Poor Students? Human Beings by Freddie Deboer – Personal feedback, tutoring and small group instruction had the largest positive effect. Includes Freddie’s explanation of meta-analysis.