Rational Feed

Rationalist:

In Defense Of Unreliability by Ozy – Zvi claims that when he makes plan with friends in the bay he never assumes the plan will actually occur. Ozy depends on unreliable transport. Getting places 10-15 early is also costly. Flaking and agoraphobia.

Politics and Economics:

What We Didn’t Get by Noah Smith – We are currently living in a world envisioned by the cyberpunk writers. the early industrial sci-fi writers also predicted many inventions. Why didn’t mid 1900s sci-fi come true? We ran out of theoretical physics and we ran out of energy. Energy density of fuel sources. Some existing or plausible technology is just too dangerous. Discussion of whether strong AI, personal upload, nanotech and/or the singularity will come true.

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Rational Feed

Scott:

Meditative States As Mental Feedback Loops by Scott Alexander – the main reason we don’t see emotional positive feedback loops is that people get distracted. If you do not get distracted you can experience a bliss feedback look.

Rationalist:

Humans Cells In Multicellular Future Minds by Robin Hanson – In general humans replace specific systems with more general adaptive systems. Seeing like a State. Most biological and cultural systems are not general. Multi-cellular organisms re tremendously inefficient. The power of entrenched systems. Human brains are extremely general. Human brains may win for a long time vs other forms of intelligence.

Why Attitudes Matter by Ozy – Focusing on attitudes can be bad for some people. Two arguments: “First, for any remotely complicated situation, it would be impossible to completely list out all the things which are okay or not okay. Second, an attitude emphasis prevents rules-lawyering.”

Strategic Goal Pursuit And Daily Schedules by Rossin (lesswrong) – The author benefitted from Anna Salamon’s goal-pursuing heuristics and daily schedules.

EA:

Ea Survey 2017 Series Qualitative Comments Summary by tee (EA forum) – Are you an EA, how welcoming is EA, local EA meetup attendance, concerns with not being ‘EA enough’, improving the survey.

Against EA PR by Ozy – The EA community is the only large entity trying to produce accurate and publicly available assessments of charities. Hence the EA community should not trade away any honesty. EAs should simply say which causes and organizations are most effective, they should not worry about PR concerns.

What Do DALYs Capture by Danae Arroyos (EA forum) – How Disability Adjusted life years computed. DALYs misrepresent mental health. DALY’s Miss Indirect Effects. Other issues.

Politics and Economics:

The Margin Of Stupid by Noah Smith – Can we trust studies showing that millennials are as racist as their parents, except for the ones in college who are extreme leftists?

Unpopular Ideas About Children by Julia Galef – Julia’s thoughts on why she is collecting these lists. Parenting styles, pro and anti-natalism, sexuality, punishment, etc. Happiness studies. Some other studies finding extreme results.

Misc:

Seek Not To Be Entertained by Mr. Money Mustache – Don’t be normal, normal people need constant entertainment. You can get enjoyment and satisfaction from making things. Advice for people less abnormal than MMM. What you enjoy doesn’t matter, what matters is what is good for you.

Podcast:

Into The Dark Land by Waking Up with Sam Harris – “Siddhartha Mukherjee about his Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer.”

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

Recognizing Vs Generating An Important Dichotomy For Life by Gordon (Map and Territory) – Bullet Points -> Essay vs Essay -> Bullet Points. Generating ideas vs critique. Most advice is bad since it doesn’t convey the reasons clearly. Let the other person figure out the actual advice for themselves.

Misc:

Propositions On Immortality by sam[]zdat – Fiction. A man digresses about philosophy, the nature of time, the soul, consciousness and mortality.

Podcast:

Conversation with Larry Summers by Marginal Revolution – “Mentoring, innovation in higher education, monopoly in the American economy, the optimal rate of capital income taxation, philanthropy, Hermann Melville, the benefits of labor unions, Mexico, Russia, and China, Fed undershooting on the inflation target, and Larry’s table tennis adventure in the summer Jewish Olympics.”

Rational Feed

Scott:

Book Review Mastering The Core Teachings Of The Buddha by Scott Alexander – “Buddhism For ER Docs. ER docs are famous for being practical, working fast, and thinking everyone else is an idiot. MCTB delivers on all three counts.” Practical buddhism with a focus on getting things done. buddhism is split into morality concentration and wisdom. Discussion of “the Dark Night of the Soul” which is a sort of depression occurs when you have had some but not enough spiritual experience.

Rationalist:

Prediction Markets Update by Robin Hanson – Prediction markets provide powerful information but they challenge powerful entrenched interests, Hanson compares them to “a knowledgeable Autist in the C-suite”. Companies selling straight prediction market tech mostly went under. Blockchain platforms for prediction markets. Some discussion of currently promising companies.

Politics and Economics:

Role of Allies in Queer Spaces by Brute Reason – The main purpose of having allies in LBGTQA spaces is providing cover for closeted or questioning members. Genuinely cis-straight allies are ok in some spaces like LBGTQA bands. But straight allies cause problems when they are present in queer support spaces.

Misc:

Comments For Ghost by Tom Bartleby – Ghost is a blog platform hat doesn’t natively support comments. Three important use cases and why they all benefit from comments: Ex-Wordpress blogger who wants things to ‘just work’, Power suers care about privacy and don’t want to use third party comments, The Static-Site Fence-Sitter since the main dynamic content you want is comments.

Podcast:

David Remnick by The Ezra Klein Show – New Yorker editor. “Russia’s meddling in the US election, Russia’s transformation from communist rule to Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, his magazine’s coverage of President Donald Trump, how he chooses his reporters and editors, and how to build a real business around great journalism.”

Hilary Clinton by The Ezra Klein Show – Hilary’s dream of paying for basic income with revenue from shared national resources. Why she scrapped the plan. Hilary thinks she should perhaps have thrown caution to the wind. Hilary isn’t a radical, she is proud of the American political system and is annoyed other’s don’t share her enthusiasm for incremental progress.

Rational Feed

EA:

Demographics Ii by tee (EA forum) – Racial breakdown. Percent white in various geographic locations. Political spectrum. Politics correlated with cause area, diet and geography, employment, fields of study, year joining EA.

AI:

Srisk Faq by Tobias Baumann (EA forum) – Quite detailed responses to questions about suffering risks and their connection to AGI. sections: General questions, The future, S-risks and x-risks, Miscellaneous.

Focus Areas Of Worst Case Ai Safety by The Foundational Research Institute – Redundant safety measures. Tripwires. Adversarial architectures. Detecting and formalizing suffering. Backup utility functions. Benign testing environments.

Politic and Economics:

The Wonder Of International Adoption by Bryan Caplan – Benefits of international adoption of third world children. Adoptees are extremely stunted physically on arrival but make up some of the difference post adoption. International adoptions raises IQ by at least 4 points on average and perhaps as much as 8.

Misc:

Prime Crossword by protokol2020 – Can you create a grid larger than [3,7],[1,1] where all the rows and columns are primes? (37, 11, 31 and 71 are prime).

Podcast:

Could A Neuroscientist Understand A Mic by Rationally Speaking – “Eric Jonas, discussing his provocative paper titled ‘Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?’ in which he applied state-of-the-art neuroscience tools, like lesion analysis, to a computer chip. By applying neuroscience’s tools to a system that humans fully understand he was able to reveal how surprisingly uninformative those tools actually are.”

Gabriel Zucman by EconTalk – “Research on inequality and the distribution of income in the United States over the last 35 years. Zucman finds that there has been no change in income for the bottom half of the income distribution over this time period with large gains going to the top 1%. The conversation explores the robustness of this result to various assumptions and possible explanations for the findings.”

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

The Wedding Ceremony by Jacob Falkovich – Jacob gets married. Marriage is really about two agents exchanging their utility functions for the average utility function of the pair. Very funny.

Peer Review Younger Think by Marginal Revolution – Peer Review as a concept only dates to the early seventies.

AI:

Superintelligence Risk Project: Conclusion by Jeff Kaufman – “I’m not convinced that AI risk should be highly prioritized, but I’m also not convinced that it shouldn’t. Highly qualified researchers in a position to have a good sense the field have massively different views on core questions like how capable ML systems are now, how capable they will be soon, and how we can influence their development.” There are links to all the previous posts. The final write up goes into some detail about MIRI’s research program and an alternative safety paradigm connected to openAI.

Politics and Economics:

Men Not Earning by Marginal Revolution – Decline in lifetime wages is rooted in lower wages at early ages, around 25. “I wonder sometimes if a Malthusian/Marxian story might be at work here. At relevant margins, perhaps it is always easier to talk/pay a woman to do a quality hour’s additional work than to talk/pay a man to do the same.”

Rational Feed

Rationalist:

Postmortem: Mindlevelup The Book by mindlevelup – Estimates vs reality. Finishing both on-target and on-time. Finished product vs expectations. Took more time to write than expected. Going Against The Incentive Gradient. Impact evaluation. What Even is Rationality? Final Lessons.

Against Facebook The Stalking by Zvi Moshowitz – Zvi removes Facebook from his phone. Facebook proceeds to start emailing him and eventually starts texting him.

Fish Oil And The Self Critical Brain Loop by Elo – Taking fish oil stopped ELO from getting distracted by a critical feedback loop.

EA:

Welfare Differences Between Cage And Cage Free Housing by Open Philosophy – OpenPhil funded several campaigns to promote cage free eggs. They now believe they were overconfident in their claims that a cage free system would be substantially better. Hen welfare, hen mortality, transition costs and other issues are discussed.

Politics and Economics:

There Is A Hot Hand After All by Marginal Revolution – Paper link and blurb. “We test for a “hot hand” (i.e., short-term predictability in performance) in Major League Baseball using panel data. We find strong evidence for its existence in all 10 statistical categories we consider. The magnitudes are significant; being “hot” corresponds to between one-half and one standard deviation in the distribution of player abilities.”

Great Wage Stagnation is Over by Marginal Revolution – Median household incomes rose by 5.2 percent. Gains were concentrated in lower income households. Especially large gains for hispanics, women living alone and immigrants. Some of these increases are the largest in decades.

Misc:

Why Numbering Should Start At One by Artir – the author responds to many well known arguments in favor of 0-indexing.

Tim Schafer Videogame Roundup by Aceso Under Glass – Review and discussion of Psychonauts and Massive Chalice. Light discussion of other Schafer games.